Covid-19 impact on financial growth and guidelines for green recovery in BRICS: fresh insights from econometric analysis

Sustainable development and socioeconomic growth are balanced through green economic recovery post pandemic. To statistically examine the coordinated development of green economic growth, foreign direct investment, stock market return and financial development, this paper constructs a complete indicator system for green economic recovery and financial development, by using a VAR model for the BRICS over the period of 2000–2020. Our results demonstrate that FDI significantly improves environmental quality by lowering pollution levels and improve the green economic growth in the region (BRICS). Stock market also has a significant positive effect on green economic growth. On the other side, FDI has a significant detrimental effect on financial development. Finally, financial development has a considerable detrimental impact on environmental deterioration. Our analysis recommends that besides the initiatives in financial growth, FDI and stock market be given priority in order to improve sustainable development.

Ludangshen oral liquid for treatment of convalescent COVID-19 patients: a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled multicenter trial.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the effect of Ludangshen oral liquid for treatment of convalescent patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled multicenter method. METHODS: 200 convalescent COVID-19 patients who had symptoms related to decreased digestive and respiratory function were randomly divided to either receive Ludangshen oral liquid or placebo for 2 weeks. The severity of clinical symptoms including fatigue, anorexia, abdominal distension, loose stools, and shortness of breath were assessed by visual analogue scale and observed at before and after treatment. The improvement and resolution rates of clinical symptoms were evaluated. Full analysis set (FAS) and per-protocol set (PPS) were used for statistical analyses. Adverse events were recorded during the study. RESULTS: 8 patients did not complete the study. After 2 weeks of treatment, both FAS and PPS results showed that patients in Ludangshen group had significantly lower score of fatigue, anorexia, loose stools, and shortness of breath than placebo group (P < 0.05), while there was no significant difference in distention (P > 0.05). The improvement rate of fatigue, anorexia, distension, loose stools and shortness of breath were significantly higher in Ludangshen group (P < 0.05), as well as the resolution rates (P < 0.05) except for shortness of breath (P > 0.05). There were two cases of adverse events, with one nose bleeding in Ludangshen group and one headache in placebo group. CONCLUSION: The study suggested that two weeks of Ludangshen oral liquid treatment may have certain effects for convalescent COVID-19 patients on improving digestive and respiratory symptoms including fatigue, anorexia, loose stools and shortness of breath, which may be one of the choices for management of convalescent COVID-19 patients with digestive and respiratory symptoms.

Traditional Chinese Medicine Decoctions Significantly Reduce the Mortality in Severe and Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a new infectious disease associated with high mortality, and traditional Chinese medicine decoctions (TCMDs) have been widely used for the treatment of patients with COVID-19 in China; however, the impact of these decoctions on severe and critical COVID-19-related mortality has not been evaluated. Therefore, we aimed to address this gap. In this retrospective cohort study, we included inpatients diagnosed with severe/critical COVID-19 at the Tongren Hospital of Wuhan University and grouped them depending on the recipience of TCMDs (TCMD and non-TCMD groups). We conducted a propensity score-matched analysis to adjust the imbalanced variables and treatments and used logistic regression methods to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. Among 282 patients with COVID-19 who were discharged or died, 186 patients (66.0%) received TCMD treatment (TCMD cohort) and 96 (34.0%) did not (non-TCMD cohort). After propensity score matching at a 1:1 ratio, 94 TCMD users were matched to 94 non-users, and there were no significant differences in baseline clinical variables between the two groups of patients. The all-cause mortality was significantly lower in the TCMD group than in the non-TCMD group, and this trend remained valid even after matching (21.3% [20/94] vs. 39.4% [37/94]). Multivariable logistic regression model showed that disease severity (odds ratio: 0.010; 95% CI: 0.003, 0.037; [Formula: see text]¡ 0.001) was associated with increased odds of death and that TCMD treatment significantly decreased the odds of in-hospital death (odds ratio: 0.115; 95% CI: 0.035, 0.383; [Formula: see text]¡ 0.001), which was related to the duration of TCMD treatment. Our findings show that TCMD treatment may reduce the mortality in patients with severe/critical COVID-19.

Clinical Characteristics of 195 Cases of COVID-19 with Gastrointestinal Symptoms COVID-19 with Gastrointestinal Symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), have fever, dry cough, dyspnea, and fatigue. The disease has now become a global pandemic. The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between COVID-19 and gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms. METHODS: We collected and analyzed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 by high-throughput sequencing or reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. We reviewed electronic medical records of 405 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the Third Hospital of Wuhan. RESULTS: Among the 405 confirmed patients, 210 had no GI symptoms, 195 had GI symptoms, and the first symptom of 155 patients was GI. The prevalence of vascular and digestive diseases in the group with GI symptoms was significantly higher than in the group without GI symptoms. In patients with GI symptoms, the proportion with fever, cough, dysphoria, chest tightness, poor appetite, chest pain, and pharyngeal pain was significantly higher than in those without GI symptoms. There was no significant difference in imaging between the 2 groups. In patients with GI symptoms, the proportion with increased procalcitonin (PCT) level and decreased lymphocyte count was significantly higher than in those without GI symptoms. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients with GI symptoms had significantly more vascular and digestive system diseases and were more likely to have clinical manifestations of fever, cough, poor appetite, chest tightness, chest pain, insomnia, and pharyngeal pain. There were more patients with diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting. Patients with GI symptoms were more likely to have increased PCT and decreased lymphocyte count.

Determinants of mortality of patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in an overwhelmed challenge to the healthcare system worldwide. METHODS: A case-control study of COVID-19 patients in Wuhan Third Hospital was conducted. 96 deceased COVID-19 patients and 230 discharged patients were included as the case group and control group, respectively. Demographic, epidemiological, clinical and laboratory variables on admission were collected from electronic medical records. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were adopted to investigate the independent predictors of mortality. A nomogram was formed for predicting the mortality risk. RESULTS: The multivariate stepwise logistic model demonstrated that age of 60+ years (OR =4.426, 95% CI: 1.955-10.019), comorbidity of cerebrovascular disease (OR =7.084, 95% CI: 1.545-32.471), white blood cell (WBC) count >9.5×109/L (OR =7.308, 95% CI: 1.650-32.358), platelet count <125×109/L (OR =5.128, 95% CI: 2.157-12.191), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) >40 U/L (OR =2.554, 95% CI: 1.253-5.206), cystatin C >1.1 mg/L (OR =4.132, 95% CI: 2.118-8.059), C reactive protein (CRP) ≥100 mg/L (OR =2.830, 95% CI: 1.311-6.109), creatine kinase isoenzymes (CK-MB) >24 U/L (OR =6.015, 95% CI: 2.119-17.07) and D-dimer >5 µg/L (OR =4.917, 95% CI: 1.619-14.933) were independent predictors of mortality of COVID-19 patients. The nomogram demonstrated a well discriminatory accuracy for mortality prediction with a C-index of 0.903. CONCLUSIONS: The determinants identified may help to determine patients at high risk of death at an early stage and guide the optimal treatment.

A risk score based on baseline risk factors for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients.

BACKGROUND: To develop a sensitive and clinically applicable risk assessment tool identifying coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with a high risk of mortality at hospital admission. This model would assist frontline clinicians in optimizing medical treatment with limited resources. METHODS: 6415 patients from seven hospitals in Wuhan city were assigned to the training and testing cohorts. A total of 6351 patients from another three hospitals in Wuhan, 2169 patients from outside of Wuhan, and 553 patients from Milan, Italy were assigned to three independent validation cohorts. A total of 64 candidate clinical variables at hospital admission were analyzed by random forest and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analyses. RESULTS: Eight factors, namely, Oxygen saturation, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, admission before the date the national Maximum number of daily new cases was reached, Age, Procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and absolute Neutrophil counts, were identified as having significant associations with mortality in COVID-19 patients. A composite score based on these eight risk factors, termed the OURMAPCN-score, predicted the risk of mortality among the COVID-19 patients, with a C-statistic of 0.92 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.93). The hazard ratio for all-cause mortality between patients with OURMAPCN-score >11 compared with those with scores ≤ 11 was 18.18 (95% CI 13.93-23.71; p < .0001). The predictive performance, specificity, and sensitivity of the score were validated in three independent cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The OURMAPCN score is a risk assessment tool to determine the mortality rate in COVID-19 patients based on a limited number of baseline parameters. This tool can assist physicians in optimizing the clinical management of COVID-19 patients with limited hospital resources.

The Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Determines Clinical Efficacy of Corticosteroid Therapy in Patients with COVID-19.

Corticosteroid therapy is now recommended as a treatment in patients with severe COVID-19. But one key question is how to objectively identify severely ill patients who may benefit from such therapy. Here, we assigned 12,862 COVID-19 cases from 21 hospitals in Hubei Province equally to a training and a validation cohort. We found that a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) > 6.11 at admission discriminated a higher risk for mortality. Importantly, however, corticosteroid treatment in such individuals was associated with a lower risk of 60-day all-cause mortality. Conversely, in individuals with an NLR ≤ 6.11 or with type 2 diabetes, corticosteroid treatment was not associated with reduced mortality, but rather increased risks of hyperglycemia and infections. These results show that in the studied cohort corticosteroid treatment is associated with beneficial outcomes in a subset of COVID-19 patients who are non-diabetic and with severe symptoms as defined by NLR.

Redefining Cardiac Biomarkers in Predicting Mortality of Inpatients With COVID-19.

The prognostic power of circulating cardiac biomarkers, their utility, and pattern of release in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have not been clearly defined. In this multicentered retrospective study, we enrolled 3219 patients with diagnosed COVID-19 admitted to 9 hospitals from December 31, 2019 to March 4, 2020, to estimate the associations and prognostic power of circulating cardiac injury markers with the poor outcomes of COVID-19. In the mixed-effects Cox model, after adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the adjusted hazard ratio of 28-day mortality for hs-cTnI (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I) was 7.12 ([95% CI, 4.60-11.03] P<0.001), (NT-pro)BNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide or brain natriuretic peptide) was 5.11 ([95% CI, 3.50-7.47] P<0.001), CK (creatine phosphokinase)-MB was 4.86 ([95% CI, 3.33-7.09] P<0.001), MYO (myoglobin) was 4.50 ([95% CI, 3.18-6.36] P<0.001), and CK was 3.56 ([95% CI, 2.53-5.02] P<0.001). The cutoffs of those cardiac biomarkers for effective prognosis of 28-day mortality of COVID-19 were found to be much lower than for regular heart disease at about 19%-50% of the currently recommended thresholds. Patients with elevated cardiac injury markers above the newly established cutoffs were associated with significantly increased risk of COVID-19 death. In conclusion, cardiac biomarker elevations are significantly associated with 28-day death in patients with COVID-19. The prognostic cutoff values of these biomarkers might be much lower than the current reference standards. These findings can assist in better management of COVID-19 patients to improve outcomes. Importantly, the newly established cutoff levels of COVID-19-associated cardiac biomarkers may serve as useful criteria for the future prospective studies and clinical trials.

Kidney Function Indicators Predict Adverse Outcomes of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a recently emerged respiratory infectious disease with kidney injury as a part of the clinical complications. However, the dynamic change of kidney function and its association with COVID-19 prognosis are largely unknown. METHODS: In this multicenter retrospective cohort study, we analyzed clinical characteristics, medical history, laboratory tests, and treatment data of 12,413 COVID-19 patients. The patient cohort was stratified according to the severity of the outcome into three groups: non-severe, severe, and death. FINDINGS: The prevalence of elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN), elevated serum creatinine (Scr), and decreased blood uric acid (BUA) at admission was 6.29%, 5.22%, and 11.66%, respectively. The trajectories showed the elevation in BUN and Scr levels, as well as a reduction in BUA level for 28 days after admission in death cases. Increased all-cause mortality risk was associated with elevated baseline levels of BUN and Scr and decreased levels of BUA. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamic changes of the three kidney function markers were associated with different severity and poor prognosis of COVID-19 patients. BUN showed a close association with and high potential for predicting adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients for severity stratification and triage. FUNDING: This study was supported by grants from the National Key R&D Program of China (2016YFF0101504), the National Science Foundation of China (81630011, 81970364, 81970070, 81970011, 81870171, and 81700356), the Major Research Plan of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91639304), the Hubei Science and Technology Support Project (2019BFC582, 2018BEC473, and 2017BEC001), and the Medical Flight Plan of Wuhan University.

Metformin Is Associated with Higher Incidence of Acidosis, but Not Mortality, in Individuals with COVID-19 and Pre-existing Type 2 Diabetes.

The safety and efficacy of anti-diabetic drugs are critical for maximizing the beneficial impacts of well-controlled blood glucose on the prognosis of individuals with COVID-19 and pre-existing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Metformin is the most commonly prescribed first-line medication for T2D, but its impact on the outcomes of individuals with COVID-19 and T2D remains to be clarified. Our current retrospective study in a cohort of 1,213 hospitalized individuals with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D indicated that metformin use was significantly associated with a higher incidence of acidosis, particularly in cases with severe COVID-19, but not with 28-day COVID-19-related mortality. Furthermore, metformin use was significantly associated with reduced heart failure and inflammation. Our findings provide clinical evidence in support of continuing metformin treatment in individuals with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D, but acidosis and kidney function should be carefully monitored in individuals with severe COVID-19.

Retrospective analysis of clinical characteristics of 405 patients with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to investigate the clinical characteristics of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We analyzed the electronic medical records of 405 hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in the Third Hospital of Wuhan. RESULTS: The patients' median age was 56 years, 54.1% were female, 11.4% had a history of smoking, and 10.6% had a history of drinking. All cases of COVID-19 were community-acquired. Fever (76.8%) and cough (53.3%) were the most common clinical manifestations, and circulatory system diseases were the most common comorbidities. Gastrointestinal symptoms were present in 61.2% of the patients, and 2.9% of the patients were asymptomatic. Computed tomography showed ground-glass opacities in most patients (72.6%) and consolidation in 30.9%. Lymphopenia (72.3%) and hypoproteinemia (71.6%) were observed in most patients. About 20% of patients had abnormal liver function. Patients with severe disease had significantly more prominent laboratory abnormalities, including an abnormal lymphocyte count and abnormal C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, D-dimer, and albumin levels. CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 causes a variety of severe respiratory illnesses similar to those caused by SARS-CoV-1. Older age, chronic comorbidities, and laboratory abnormalities are associated with disease severity.

Longitudinal Association Between Markers of Liver Injury and Mortality in COVID-19 in China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a new infectious disease. To reveal the hepatic injury related to this disease and its clinical significance, we conducted a multicenter retrospective cohort study that included 5,771 adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Hubei Province. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We reported the distributional and temporal patterns of liver injury indicators in these patients and determined their associated factors and death risk. Longitudinal liver function tests were retrospectively analyzed and correlated with the risk factors and death. Liver injury dynamic patterns differed in alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and total bilirubin (TBIL). AST elevated first, followed by ALT, in severe patients. ALP modestly increased during hospitalization and largely remained in the normal range. The fluctuation in TBIL levels was mild in the non-severe and the severe groups. AST abnormality was associated with the highest mortality risk compared with the other indicators of liver injury during hospitalization. Common factors associated with elevated liver injury indicators were lymphocyte count decrease, neutrophil count increase, and male gender. CONCLUSION: The dynamic patterns of liver injury indicators and their potential risk factors may provide an important explanation for the COVID-19-associated liver injury. Because elevated liver injury indicators, particularly AST, are strongly associated with the mortality risk, our study indicates that these parameters should be monitored during hospitalization.

Association of Blood Glucose Control and Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19 and Pre-existing Type 2 Diabetes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a major comorbidity of COVID-19. However, the impact of blood glucose (BG) control on the degree of required medical interventions and on mortality in patients with COVID-19 and T2D remains uncertain. Thus, we performed a retrospective, multi-centered study of 7,337 cases of COVID-19 in Hubei Province, China, among which 952 had pre-existing T2D. We found that subjects with T2D required more medical interventions and had a significantly higher mortality (7.8% versus 2.7%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.49) and multiple organ injury than the non-diabetic individuals. Further, we found that well-controlled BG (glycemic variability within 3.9 to 10.0 mmol/L) was associated with markedly lower mortality compared to individuals with poorly controlled BG (upper limit of glycemic variability exceeding 10.0 mmol/L) (adjusted HR, 0.14) during hospitalization. These findings provide clinical evidence correlating improved glycemic control with better outcomes in patients with COVID-19 and pre-existing T2D.

Association of Inpatient Use of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin II Receptor Blockers With Mortality Among Patients With Hypertension Hospitalized With COVID-19.

RATIONALE: Use of ACEIs (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors) and ARBs (angiotensin II receptor blockers) is a major concern for clinicians treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with hypertension. OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between in-hospital use of ACEI/ARB and all-cause mortality in patients with hypertension and hospitalized due to COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: This retrospective, multi-center study included 1128 adult patients with hypertension diagnosed with COVID-19, including 188 taking ACEI/ARB (ACEI/ARB group; median age 64 [interquartile range, 55-68] years; 53.2% men) and 940 without using ACEI/ARB (non-ACEI/ARB group; median age 64 [interquartile range 57-69]; 53.5% men), who were admitted to 9 hospitals in Hubei Province, China from December 31, 2019 to February 20, 2020. In mixed-effect Cox model treating site as a random effect, after adjusting for age, gender, comorbidities, and in-hospital medications, the detected risk for all-cause mortality was lower in the ACEI/ARB group versus the non-ACEI/ARB group (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.19-0.92]; P=0.03). In a propensity score-matched analysis followed by adjusting imbalanced variables in mixed-effect Cox model, the results consistently demonstrated lower risk of COVID-19 mortality in patients who received ACEI/ARB versus those who did not receive ACEI/ARB (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.37 [95% CI, 0.15-0.89]; P=0.03). Further subgroup propensity score-matched analysis indicated that, compared with use of other antihypertensive drugs, ACEI/ARB was also associated with decreased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30 [95% CI, 0.12-0.70]; P=0.01) in patients with COVID-19 and coexisting hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and coexisting hypertension, inpatient use of ACEI/ARB was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality compared with ACEI/ARB nonusers. While study interpretation needs to consider the potential for residual confounders, it is unlikely that in-hospital use of ACEI/ARB was associated with an increased mortality risk.